BREAKING: Mark Finchem Leads Adrian Fontes in Arizona, Finchem winning in Maricopa.
Mark Finchem 45.0%
Crooked Adrian Fontes 42.5%
Extremely enthusiastic/Certain to vote
CDMedia Big Data Poll: Finchem Leads Fontes for Arizona Secretary of State
The CDMedia Big Data Poll finds Republican Mark Finchem leading Democrat Adrian Fontes for Arizona Secretary of State, 45.0% to 42.5%, with 12.5% undecided.
“Unsurprisingly, there are considerably more undecided voters in the race for Secretary of State than we see at the top of the ballot,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said. “That said, these are voters without college degrees who are largely voting Republican on the rest of the ticket.”
“Perhaps more noteworthy, Finchem holds a slight lead over Fontes in his own home county.”
Far fewer Democrats (63.0%) than Republicans (71.9%) report being “extremely” enthusiastic to vote in November, as was also the case in the previous survey. Finchem leads Fontes among extremely enthusiastic voters, 50.7% to 43.6%.
Nearly all voters (97.9%) who are “extremely” enthusiastic also reported being “certain to vote” in November, up slightly from 97.4% in July. Of those most likely to vote, Finchem leads Fontes 47.1% to 43.2%.
By region, Finchem hold a slight 46.2% to 43.9% lead in Maricopa County, the largest county that represents roughly 60% of the vote statewide. That’s within the sampling error of the survey and it’s important to note sampling errors for subgroups are higher. Fontes leads in Pima County 53.3% to 35.2% and Finchem leads in the rest of the state, 48.4% to 31.8%.